The conflict in the Middle East in 2023 has demonstrated new, complex dynamics and attracted global attention. A number of factors, including internal political changes, great power influence, and shifting regional alliances, have had a significant impact on the region’s stability. First, political shifts in countries at the root of the conflict, such as Syria and Iraq, continue to be in the spotlight. In Syria, reconciliation efforts between various factions have been made, although 2023 will still see high tensions, especially regarding the ISIS group which is trying to revive. Meanwhile, in Iraq, a change of government brings new hope for stabilization, but challenges from Iran-affiliated militia groups continue to threaten. On the other hand, relations between Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are also experiencing changes. Open dialogue between the two countries creates hope for reducing long-standing tensions. However, despite diplomatic efforts, minor incidents involving cyber attacks and proxies continue to occur, indicating that the conflict has not yet completely subsided. The Palestine-Israel issue continues to be a hot spot in the Middle East. In 2023, tensions escalated with attacks on settlements in the West Bank and increasing resistance in Gaza. The peace process appears to have stalled, with many Arab countries starting to consider normalizing relations with Israel, although without significant progress on the Palestinian issue. In the international arena, the role of the United States is increasingly being questioned. With a foreign policy focused more on Asia and a shift in attention to China, US involvement in the Middle East has been reduced. This provides an opportunity for Russia and China to strengthen their influence. Russia, through support for the Assad regime, and China, through major investments including the Belt and Road Initiative project, are seeking to expand their influence in the region. Humanitarian problems are also increasingly pressing. 2023 sees increasing aid needs in Syria and Yemen, where the war has caused the largest humanitarian crises. International organizations report that millions of people still live in dire conditions, with limited access to food and health services. Conflicts in the Middle East also have an impact on global energy issues. Tensions in the region trigger fluctuations in oil prices, affecting energy markets around the world. Oil producing countries are trying to maintain price stability while adapting to the global energy shift towards renewable energy sources. Finally, climate change is a new challenge for the Middle East. Increasingly severe environmental impacts threaten food and water security, contributing to social instability. Countries in the region are beginning to develop adaptation strategies to face these challenges, although these efforts are often hampered by complex political dynamics. All of these factors create an ever-changing conflict landscape in the Middle East. 2023 shows that despite efforts to reduce tensions, various deep and layered problems still have the potential to trigger further escalation.
About the Author
